Russia’s Ukraine war: US Congress close to approving long-awaited aid

Russia’s Ukraine war: US Congress close to approving long-awaited aid

After months of delays, the US House of Representatives is set to hold a vote on tens of billions of dollars in American military aid for Ukraine and Israel this weekend.

Both measures have vocal opponents in Congress, however, and their hopes of passage depend on a fragile bipartisan coalition to overcome daunting procedural and legislative hurdles.

House Speaker Mike Johnson has said he is determined to bring the matter to a vote, even though it may put his tenure in jeopardy.

Ukraine’s vote will be closely watched in Kyiv, which has warned of an urgent need for fresh support from its allies as Russia makes continued gains on the battlefield.

The House is set to vote on the final passage on Saturday, and the Senate may pass the package as soon as this weekend. President Joe Biden has promised to sign it into law.

What’s in the aid bill?
Mr Johnson’s foreign aid proposals provide $60.8 billion (£49 billion) to Ukraine, $26.4 billion to Israel and $8.1 billion to the Indo-Pacific region, including Taiwan. The House of Representatives will vote on each component individually, increasing the likelihood that some components will pass and others will fail.

The speaker also brought up a fourth piece of legislation for a vote, including requiring Chinese company ByteDance to divest from social media app TikTok, allowing the sale of frozen Russian assets, and imposing new sanctions on Russia, Iran and China.

Whatever is passed will be combined into one bill that will then have to be approved as a whole by the Senate before reaching the president’s desk.

Mr Johnson has also promised to introduce an immigration reform bill containing provisions favored by conservative Republicans in an effort to win their support for the aid package.

But the border bill appears unlikely to pass because it needs the support of two-thirds of the House, the Washington Post reported.

Why are they detained?
Polls suggest that a growing number of Republicans oppose any new aid to Ukraine. Some liberals oppose military support for Israel. While this sentiment was not enough to prevent the US Senate from passing legislation containing support for both countries in February, it has been a different story in the House.

Mr Johnson has a slim majority in the chamber, and some conservatives have threatened to push for his ouster if he backs new aid to Ukraine. The effort, led by Georgia congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, has two other supporters so far: Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Paul Gosar of Arizona.

Until now, the Speaker has been reluctant to challenge his right-wing critics. On Wednesday, however, he reversed course, saying his aim was to “do the right thing and let the chips fall where they may”.

Meanwhile, left-leaning Democrats who protest Israel’s actions in the war in Gaza say they will not allow the US to continue to be involved in the human rights catastrophe. The Israel aid bill contains $9 billion in humanitarian aid, which may help win over some reluctant Democrats.

By allowing separate votes for aid to Israel and Ukraine, Mr. Johnson hopes to allow individual lawmakers to vote against provisions they don’t like without undermining the overall effort.

What is at stake?
Biden administration officials have warned that the situation in Ukraine is dire. The country’s army was out of arms and low morale, when the Russian army gained ground.

“There is a very real risk that the Ukrainians could be lost on the battlefield by the end of 2024, or at least put [Russian President Vladimir] Putin in a position where he can basically dictate the terms of a political settlement,” CIA Director William Burns said during a speech in Texas on Thursday.

50,000 Russian soldiers confirmed dead by BBC
Ukraine warns of WW3 ahead of stalled US aid vote
In an interview with the BBC on Wednesday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said his country needed new support “yesterday, not tomorrow, not today” and warned that Ukraine would fall without American help.

The situation of the Israeli army is very different from the situation of the Ukrainian army. But Mr Biden said the country’s high-tech air defenses – which received their biggest test yet in last weekend’s Iranian missile and drone attack – needed to be the new one.

“This is an important moment,” Mr. Biden wrote in a Wall Street Journal op-ed on Wednesday that called on the House of Representatives to act.

So will they pass?
Late Thursday night, Democrats joined with Republicans allied with Mr. Johnson to ensure that the relief legislation passed a daunting procedural hurdle in the House Rules Committee despite dissent among conservatives.

On Friday morning, a similar coalition of Democrats and pro-aid Republicans in the full House voted 316-94 to set up a final debate and vote on the legislation for Saturday afternoon. This comfortable margin is a strong indication that a large, bipartisan majority in the chamber is on track to pass the package.

Democratic support could also give Mr Johnson a political lifeline, as his strategy of bypassing his party’s hard-line conservatives to legislate may encourage them to follow through on their threat to force a vote for his removal.

The speaker has to rely on minority party support, especially on procedural votes, a rarity in modern congressional history. But Mr. Johnson’s grip on power is tenuous, and lawmakers who oppose him and his efforts to provide aid to Ukraine occupy several key positions in the House power structure.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Democratic House leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York said Mr Johnson had to manage a “very unruly” group of Republicans and praised him for trying to get Ukrainian aid to the vote.

Democrats may be wary of offering aid to Mr. Johnson, but the prospect of providing new aid to Ukraine — a top foreign policy priority for their party and Mr. Biden — could make it worth the effort.